T1 Only Has a 0.98% Chance of Winning TI10 According to Mathematical Simulations
T1, Southeast Asia's (SEA's) premier representative at The International 10 (TI10) has less than a 1% chance of winning the Dota 2 World Championships based on math simulations done by Ben "Noxville" Steenhuisen, the well-known Dota 2 statistician. The probability of T1 winning at TI10 is 0.98%. This is the 13th rank of all the 18 teams competing. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation model, the probability list has been drawn up for all 18 teams for all 18 positions. According to the chart, PSG.LGD is the most likely to win TI10.
T1’s most likely result at TI10 is 13-16th according to Noxville's probability model
“Put together a little stats site for probabilities of teams/regions to place at TI, and expected earnings,” Noxville wrote in his first of three tweets explaining his probability model.
While T1 has a very low chance of winning TI10, its likeliest finish at Dota 2’s greatest stage is also only 13th-16th with a 29.82% chance. The second most-likely finish, according to the calculation, is 9th-12th with a 25.96% chance.
Noxville noted that the information he used to compile this list was scarce for that point in time, and it will likely be altered once TI10 begins and more information about the event becomes available. Additionally, he pointed out that some teams are undervalued or overvalued, which might seem unfair, and that he would be publishing some articles detailing reasons why some of his statistics might not be accurate.
Over the last few months, T1 has fared relatively well in international competition. The team placed third at the WePlay AniMajor and then won the ESL One Summer 2021. At the time, the team looked to be in impressive form, but the level of its performances dropped and it fell to fourth place in both the ESL One Fall 2021 and the OGA Dota PIT Invitational.
The calculations show that, while PSG.LGD is the top contender for first place, SG esports has the least chances of emerging as champion. Here are the top five contenders for first place:
On this preliminary probability list, Fnatic, SEA's other representative, doesn't look too hot either. Currently ranked 16th, it has a meager 0.33% chance of winning.
TI10 will take place at the Arena Nationala Stadium in Bucharest, Romania, from 7th-17th Oct 2021. When the first days of the event come to a close, and this list changes, a lot will become clear as to who the top contenders are.