AI Predicts PGL Major Teams That Might Qualify For New Legends Stage

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AI Predicts 8 CS:GO Teams That Might Qualify for PGL Major New Legends Stage

Take a look before finalizing for the Pick'Em Challenge.

Aditya Singh Rawat
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Highlights
AI predicts which eight CS:GO teams have the highest chance of qualifying through the PGL Major 2021: New Challengers Stage.
Based on the results of over 200,000 simulations the eight qualifying teams are FaZe, Heroic, Astralis, ENCE, MOUZ, Virtus.pro, BIG, and Entropiq.
GGPredict has explained the factors taken into consideration while running the simulations along with its drawbacks.

The first CS:GO Major in over two years, PGL Major Stockholm 2021, is just a day away from kicking off with the first stage of the tournament, the New Challengers Stage. 16 contenders and challengers are ready to take on each other through which only eight of them shall advance further into the New Legends Stage.

With the Stockholm 2021 Viewer Pass released by Valve, everyone is discussing their predictions for the Pick'Em Challenge. To help them along, GGPredict simulated the first stage of the Major over 200,000 times with the help of their AI (Artificial Intelligence). Predictions indicated which eight CS:GO teams might have the highest chance of advancing on to the next stage.

AI predicts which PGL Major teams have the highest chance of qualifying through New Challengers Stage

A combination of AI and Machine Learning was used to run more than 200,000 simulations for all the 16 CS:GO teams that together comprise of the New Challengers Stage. As per the calculations, here are the top eight teams that are predicted to make it through to the New Legends Stage.

  1. FaZe Clan - 85.15%

  2. Heroic - 82.96%

  3. Astralis - 78.99%

  4. ENCE - 78.59%

  5. MOUZ - 76.34%

  6. Virtus.pro - 72.71%

  7. BIG - 70.59%

  8. Entropiq - 66.83%

So for all those that do not follow the CS:GO competitive scene properly or are just confused as to what to go with for the Pick'Em Challenge, this should give you a decent idea of how to go about it.

PGL Major New Challengers Stage - Complete Predictions

As per GGPredict, who ran all the simulations and came up with the predictions listed above, even roster shuffles have been taken into consideration. The higher the number of lineup changes, the more volatile will be the team's performance for some time, as per the prediction tool.

The system in place does not account for which map is being played or where the match is taking place, LAN/online. However, it still takes into consideration statistics of all the team player's, recent performances of all the teams, strength of their opponents, and tournament level.

Using our tool we have programmed possible scenarios of PGL Major - New Challengers Stage in the Swiss format. Each team is randomly assigned a 'win' or a 'loss' according to our probabilities and is moved to the next game according to the tournament system. This way, we have 'played out' the tournament over 200,000 times using our pairwise win probability tool. Based on the results of each simulation, the number of iterations in which each team advances to the New Legends Stage was calculated. The simulations in which a team finishes with three wins, is counted as probability of finishing in the top eight, which we assign for each team.
GGPredict

There are drawbacks to this system of prediction such as the recent results of all the teams have been given more weightage, the human factor of how well a team or an individual can handle stress has not been taken into consideration, and some team like TYLOO who compete mostly within Asia could have a skewed outcome as their opponents are considered quite weak.

The data represented above is mostly for fun, as per GGPredict. The real outcome might vary significantly. The teams are rearing to go for the PGL Major Stockholm 2021 which will be running from 26th October to 7th November 2021.

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Aditya is the in-house CS:GO writer at AFK Gaming. While his understanding of the esports space is not restricted by geographical borders, his current focus lies in the Asian region. Understands and follows almost all major esport titles.