Which SEA Teams Have the Highest Chances of Qualifying for the First Major of the DPC 2021-22?

The Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) Southeast Asia (SEA) 2021-22 Tour 1: Division 1 reaches its second half and it begins with some teams ahead while others are lagging behind in the race to qualify for the first Major. Given the standings, a mathematical simulator by Dota Diesel has predicted various SEA teams' chances of qualifying for the Major as well as their chances of being relegated to Division 2. As per the estimations, BOOM Esports stands out as the team most likely to qualify for the Major with a 94% chance, while TNC Predator is the most likely to be relegated to Division 2.

BOOM Esports, closely followed by T1, has the highest probability of qualifying for the first Major

BOOM Esports is ahead in the competition based on the mathematical simulation, which is also reflected in its current results. Boasting a perfect 4-0 start to the league with not a single loss in its last 19 series, BOOM Esports has certainly been on a roll.

Following BOOM Esports is T1, which has played two series and won both of them. BOOM Esports has a 94.7% chance of making the Major, while T1 is not far behind with a 93.8% chance. Throughout the last year, this team has already proven its prowess, including a prestigious top eight finish at The International 10 (TI10), the region's first since 2016.

SEA's middle pack is where we'll see the competitive magic. BOOM Esports is already quite ahead and despite the fact that T1 has played fewer series as compared to other teams, it is quite apparent that they too are likely to advance to the Major considering their recent form. So, the fight is primarily between Execration, Fnatic, Team SMG, Motivate.Trust Gaming, and OB.Neon for the third and final spot. All these teams, except for OB.Neon, have almost the same record so far, but according to the mathematical model, their chances of qualifying for the first Major are as follows:

• Team SMG - 42%

• Fnatic - 18%

• Execration - 17%

• OB.Neon - 13%

• Motivate.Trust Gaming - 9%

In this case there are two things that stand out: Team SMG's chances are much better than those of their counterparts, despite their nearly identical Win-Loss (W-L) records, and OB.Neon is higher in the list despite losing all the three series they have played so far.

The rationale for Team SMG's case perhaps lies in the fact that it has already faced the hot favorites of the league. Its only remaining games are against Execration, OB.Neon and TNC Predator. OB.Neon and TNC Predator are both on losing streaks and have yet to claim their first win.

In OB.Neon’s case, it was its great performance at the Huya Dota2 Winter Invitational that seemingly increased its chances in the simulator. Competing against the best teams from China such as Royal Never Give Up, Team Aster, Invictus Gaming, and more, OB.Neon, to everyone’s surprise, went on to win the entire event. It is apparent that the team has improved during this holiday break and will be a formidable team for its remaining opponents.

The only team from SEA that fans would not be used to seeing at the bottom, but is currently at the bottom, is TNC Predator. The once-dominant force of the region has seemingly been devastated with its new roster so far in DPC 2021-22, having lost four series on the trot thus far. The simulations present a dismal sight, so for the team to survive in Division 1, they are going to have to fight incredibly hard.

There was a two week break, and we have seen a lot of changes for teams on such occasions in the past, but the short duration of the break, as well as the fact that the meta remains the same, might not lead to much deviation from the chances the calculation model indicates.

Team Liquid in the Western European Region (WEU) was the only team mathematically guaranteed a spot in the first Major in the first half of the DPC 2021-22. The remaining 17 will be determined in the second half of the tournament, so we have three weeks of exciting Dota 2 action ahead of us.

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