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SyndereN and SUNSfan, a popular Dota 2 commentating duo, discussed on their ‘We Say Things’ podcast titled 'Dota matchmaking is at an all time worst' what they believe can cause the downfall of Valve’s flagship Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA), Dota 2. Shannon "SUNSfan" Scotten says Dota 2 is going to last forever, but the game could fall if Valve stops maintaining it at the same capacity it does now. Troels Lyngholt "syndereN" Nielsen also holds the same view that Dota 2 could lose popularity if its developers stop continuously updating it for some reason while additionally commenting that a new game in the same genre could also potentially overtake Dota 2.
SyndereN and SUNSfan present two reasons that could lead to Dota 2's demise
SyndereN and SUNSfan, in their podcast 'We Say Things,' usually discuss Dota 2, NBA, and sometimes other esports titles. Following a question from the community, in their podcast, dated 5th August 2021, the two discussed the reasons behind Dota 2's downfall in the future.
SUNSfan stated that it was clear what would cause Dota 2's popularity to plummet - Valve. He mentions that he does not say this in a negative way but he feels that Dota 2 developers might move on and there won't be as much interest in maintaining the same level of quality as there is now.
“I feel it is just the reality. The answer is Valve and I don’t mean that in a super negative way," said SUNSfan. "I think Dota is a game that is going to be around forever, pretty much. And it’s all about how much attention Valve is going to give because there’s gonna come a time whether it’s from their company policy where people can move around or whatever, eventually people are not gonna be interested in maintaining it to the level that it is at now.”
SyndereN, on the other hand, lists two reasons that could lead to the collapse of Dota 2. In the first, he agrees with SUNSfan, saying that developers who have been updating Dota 2 out of passion or financial incentives no longer work the same way.
SyndereN stated, “I think the downfall is either going to be neglect, so Valve at some point just flat out move on to other stuff entirely as they have been with past games. At some point, they just lose interest; they feel it’s not worth updating anymore. Fortunately for 10 years now, we have had developers on it that either do it out of passion because they love the game themselves or because of financial incentives or whatever but someday that might not be the case anymore. That’s one way it could be the downfall.”
SyndereN believes the second reason for the potential fall of Valve’s MOBA is the emergence of a new, fresher alternative to Dota 2, which may steal the game’s current players.
"The other one is if another game comes in and takes it over, right? That’s the thing that you could either hope for or dread depending upon your perspective of Dota but it’s what happened to other games and other genres is that a game is big until something better or newer or fresher comes around, that rivals it too hard and takes the player base and defeats it right. For the consumer, that’s a good thing if there’s a competitor that is really good at what they do and rivals the stage,” he added.
While syndereN explained that there could be a rival game from another publisher that could oust Dota 2, SUNSfan mentioned the possibility of a rival game from Valve itself, Dota 3.
SyndereN, however, believes that there are no developments in the MOBA genre on the horizon and that it is difficult to invest in. In his view, this is due to the fact that the current competitors (Dota 2 and League of Legends) have a lot of “depth and history” for a newer company making it extremely difficult for the competitors to penetrate this market.
The player base of Dota 2 had steadily grown since its release until 2016 when it consistently averaged more than 600,000 simultaneous players, but from then until 2019, it decreased gradually. The player base has been relatively stable from 2019 to the present, with both red and green months.
The last four months have, however, been fruitful for the game with players growing for four consecutive months for the first time since 2016.
A new Dota 2 patch is expected to be released shortly after the Nemestice Battle Pass comes to an end and TI10 (The International 10) will take place in a couple of months, from 7th-17th Oct, 2021, so we might see more excitement and an increase in player engagement in the coming weeks.
