Only One SEA Team Might Get Directly Invited to TI11. Here’s Why
As competitive as Southeast Asia (SEA) has grown in the Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) in the last year, it has resulted in improved teams and a fantastic rivalry for spectators to watch. However, when it comes to qualifying for the all-important The International 11 (TI11), the region may suffer from the competition. According to Dota 2 statsman, Ben "Noxville" Steenhuisen, points may become so evenly distributed among the top SEA teams in the ongoing DPC 2021-22 that just one directly qualifies for TI11. Noxville also shared what the SEA teams need in Tour 3 and the upcoming PGL Arlington Major for these teams to pass the probable TI11 point threshold.
According to the DPC system, only the top 12 teams with the most points across the six regions receive a direct invitation to TI11.
Dota 2 statistician Noxville explains how SEA’s competitiveness may come to hurt it in regards to TI11 qualification
In Tour 3 of the SEA DPC 2021-22 Division 1, just eight series remain and six teams are still in contention for a spot in the Major, which awards three berths to the region. As Noxville pointed out, this competition may only serve to harm the region and its teams, as just one team looks to be receiving a direct invite.
According to his calculations, the current barrier to a TI11 direct invite is 980 points, which implies that the top four SEA teams in the overall standings need the following finishes in Tour 3 and the Arlington Major, provide they qualify.
Fnatic need 160 (3rd place DPC)
Boom need 360 (1st place DPC, or 2nd/3rd + top 8 finish in the major)
T1 need 550 points (3rd place DPC + top 8 finish in the major)
SMG need 935 points (1st DPC + top 6 major | 2nd DPC + top 3 finish in the major)
Furthermore, RSG and Talon Esports, both up from Division 2, can still qualify for TI11, although their chances are slim. To overcome the current 980 point threshold, they will need to finish in the top two in Tour 3 and then play in the grand finals of the Arlington Major.
It is also possible that RSG and Talon Esports will be unable to make it if the threshold increases and at the same time, Fnatic, BOOM Esports, T1, and Team SMG may have to achieve even better results at the Major.
As a result of such fierce competition, Noxville stated that it looks statistically realistic for the other four teams to offer BOOM and Fnatic "as much advantage as possible.” This will mean that if BOOM and Fnatic obtain direct invites, T1, Team SMG, RSG, and Talon Esports may have a relatively easier route in the TI11 SEA qualifier, from which one team would qualify for TI11.
It is unlikely, however, that these teams will focus exclusively on regional qualifiers and not give their best in the current Tour and the Arlington Major.
A subsequent comment by Noxville summarized the current tough situation in SEA DPC: It's stupid that more regions get diluted points simply for being competitive.
In addition to regional qualifiers for each of the six regions, there will be a last chance qualifier with a total of 12 teams, only two of which will advance to the TI11 group stage. These 12 teams shall be composed of the teams that finished second and third in the six regional qualifiers, providing two SEA teams with another opportunity to compete at TI11. It will be a very tough final qualifier, however.