The EU region has yet again set forth an extraordinary brand of Dota 2 with the EU 2021 DPC Season 2: Upper Division showing some gripping contests. The league has been quite competitive as seven out of eight participants still have a shot at securing a Major slot after the fourth week. Dota 2 analyst and statistician, Ben "Noxville" Steenhuisen, calculated the probabilities of the possible final outcomes of the EU league by using the weighted probabilities method and the Glicko-2 rating system. As per Noxville’s calculation, Alliance is most likely to top the group and directly proceed to the Major playoffs. Here is a look at which other teams have the highest probability of going to the Major, and what position Team Secret - for long considered as the best team in the world- is likely going to end in, according to the Dota 2 statistician.
Alliance and Team Liquid are currently tied on top of the charts with four wins and one loss. However, Alliance has a better probability of finishing first with 38.07%, while Liquid has 15.01%. Even Alliance has a higher chance of ending in the playoff/group stage tiebreaker than Liquid. This is because Alliance has already beaten the better teams in the league. Their upcoming opponents are Tundra Esports and Hellbear Smashers, while Liquid still needs to play Secret and OG.
Though Liquid has the highest chance of taking second place, their probability is not completely outmatching that of OG and Team Nigma. While Liquid has 11.25%, OG and Nigma have 5.95% and 4.55%, respectively. This means that there is an increasing likelihood of a group stage/wild card tiebreaker where Liquid and Nigma have quite similar chances, followed by OG. A lot will rely on the two series - Liquid vs OG and Nigma vs OG.
If there are no tiebreakers for the group stage/wild card, OG and Team Nigma look to be the prime contenders for the Wild Card places at the major. OG has the highest probability for the third position with 31.29%, while Nigma has the highest for the fourth position with 27.22%.
Though Team Secret is most likely going to end in the fifth-sixth spot, there is a probability of them getting eliminated. They have nearly an 8% chance of getting relegated and a 17% chance of ending in the relegation tiebreakers. A lot will be dependent upon the results of the other teams and the outcome of their series against Liquid since they are expected to win against Brame.