Before the release of Operation Shattered Web, there was a time when everyone would be asking Valve about the details of the next operation, constantly criticising them for not releasing one, all the while reminiscing about the ones gone by. But there was one guy u/zhmija, who back in September 2017 took it upon himself to find out the date of release of the next operation.
The user used simple maths to figure out the exponential rate of time between two operations, following which he first compared the time between the end and start of various operations according to the actual timeline.
Old Operation | End Date | New Operation | Start Date | Wait Period |
Breakout | 2 Oct, 2014 | Vanguard | 11 Nov, 2014 | 40 Days |
Vanguard | 31 March, 2015 | Bloodhound | 26 May, 2015 | 56 Days |
Bloodhound | 1 Oct, 2015 | Wildfire | 17 Feb, 2016 | 139 Days |
Wildfire | 15 July, 2016 | Hydra | 23 May, 2017 | 312 Days |
Once getting the data on the wait time between two operations the user found out the ratio between these wait times.
Wait Period | Ratio | Rate of Increment |
Vanguard Gap | 56/40 | 1.4 |
Bloodhound Gap | 139/56 | 2.48 |
Wildfire Gap | 312/139 | 2.24 |
He took the average of the Bloodhound and the Wildfire gap as these two readings were more consistent with each other. The user then went ahead and multiplied this wait time ratio with the last known gap time (Wildfire end - Hydra start = 312 Days), coming to a conclusion that the next possible operation would begin 737 days from 26th September 2017, which is 3rd October 2019.
The latest CS:GO operation, Shattered Web released on 19th November, which is just 47 days off from what the user had predicted.
But if we also take into account that Operation Hydra was extended till 13th November 2017 from the previously set date of 26th September 2017, that gives us an additional 48 days, meaning that the users prediction would have landed on 20th November 2019, missing the actual date of release by just one day.
I don’t know about you guys but this just blew my mind and this guy is definitely from the future or just someone who actually puts general math to good use.
