The TI equation - what will it take to get into the top 12?

Shounak Sengupta

3rd, Jun, 2019

With the qualifiers for the last 2 DPC events now complete, we have a better understanding of what the DPC points table looks like, which teams have the potential to pick up points, and which teams can affect the table in a way that changes the current status quo. With 8 out of 12 teams guaranteed a spot at TI9 already, only 4 spots remain as the competition gets more unpredictable, cut-throat and emotional towards the tail end of the season.

 
The current 4
 

Currently, the 4 teams other than the 8 who have already secured qualification are Keen Gaming, OG, TNC Predator and Ehome. Barring Keen Gaming, the other 3 all have their fates in their own hands, ie. no other team can take their spots if these teams can make deep runs. Unfortunately, Keen failed to qualify for both the Starladder Minor and the EPICENTER Major, which means that they are no longer the masters of their own fate. Both TNC and OG are playing at the Major directly while Ehome have to play the Minor first and then try and make it to the Major. 
 

   
From the Major
 

From the Major, other than the teams in the top 12, Pain Gaming, Forward Gaming, Royal Never Give Up, Gambit Esports and Infamous are the only 5 teams who can sneak into the top 12. Since Ehome are in 12th place at the DPC table and will pick up a minimum of 20 points via the Minor the gap to overcome for all these teams is over 350 points for the highest placed team (Gambit @ 228 points) and over 500 for the lowest placed team (Infamous @ 60 points).

 

Therefore, mathematically, only Gambit can replace Ehome in the top 12 with a top 8 finish at EPICENTER while RNG, FWD, Pain and Infamous will need at least top 6. If in case, Ehome don’t place last at the Minor but also not in the top 2, the equation for any of these teams to place in the top 12 will be a top 6 finish at the Major.

 

With teams like Secret, VP, Liquid, LGD, VG and EG all playing in the Major, it seems hard to imagine a lot of new names in the top 6. In fact, OG, NiP, Fnatic, Ehome and TNC are the only 5 teams to have had a top 6 placing across 4 Majors, other than the 6 we already mentioned.

 
What’s the safety net for teams who are already in the top 12?
 

As we already discussed, the gap between the highest non-top 12 team and the 12th placed team, Ehome is just over 360. Realistically, the teams aren’t in any real danger of losing their spot unless one of the lower placed teams really shocks in terms of results. And even if one team can surprise everyone, it will most likely be at the cost of Ehome, who have the longest journey and will have to place top 2 at the Minor and then pick up the requisite number of points from the Major to retain their spot.
 


 

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