Gfreak’s Peek: Predictions for MDL Changsha Major Playoffs

Vignesh Raghuram

15th, May, 2018

So the Group Stages of the MDL Changsha Major has finally come to a close, and the results of our predictions have come in. While some of you might have gone your own way, if you followed our predictions, you would have won 23.5/25 Tokens in the group stages (Damn you VGJ.Storm tying against TNC).

But that was the easy part, to be honest. The playoffs present a much more difficult challenge as the tournament enters a BO3 elimination mode. So once again, let’s attempt to have a go at the predictions of the MDL Changsha Major.

But before we start, a couple of things need to be remembered. First off, Valve only gives us 25 Tokens per week, which means that the tokens won’t be refreshed until 22 May (08:30 PM IST | 06:00 PM SGT). So we need to be a bit more cautious with our tokens. But we need to make sure to spend all of them before MDL Changsha comes to a close, since the next major – ESL  One: Birmingham only kicks off on May 23.

Note: While every other site has Mineski vs TNC Predator, VGJ.Storm vs OG in the upper brackets. Valve's prediction site shows a different schedule. I am choosing to stick with the official Dota 2 site, even though almost all other media outlets show a different schedule. In the case that Valve's wrong, I'd abstain from both of the matches (Mineski vs TNC Predator, VGJ.Storm vs OG) as they're way too close to call.


My Predictions

VGJ.Storm vs Mineski

I’ll admit, I underestimated VGJ.Storm a little bit in the Group Stages. The team looks simply superb and are by far the best NA team currently. SVG’s captainship and Sneyking’s offlane play has overwhelmed all but the best ‘early-game’ teams (Vici Gaming and TNC Predator) out there.

Mineski, meanwhile, still look like one of the best teams in the tournament. But their shock 2-0 loss to OG has made me kind of iffy on betting on the SEA team. I would like to watch their performance in their next match before making any predictions.

My Advice: Abstain
OG vs TNC Predator

Looks like TNC Predator are big fans of Thanos, their Group Stage record – barring the game against Vega Squadron – reflects “Perfectly balanced. As all things should be.” They beat every single team but also lost to almost everyone going 1-1 in four of their five matches.

OG has continued their yin-yang form in this tournament as well. They beat Mineski 2-0 but then went on to lose to Invictus Gaming. We don’t know what OG will show up in the playoff stage, but I think TNC Predator still hold the edge.

My Advice: 3 Tokens on TNC Predator
Invictus Gaming vs Newbee

It’s a BO1 matchup between two relatively weak Chinese teams. Neither Invictus Gaming nor Newbee has shown any potential or signs of improving from their less than stellar form coming into this event. I give Newbee the edge in this matchup, but since it’s a BO1, I’d advice you to not bet on them.

My Advice: Abstain
PSG.LGD vs IG.Vitality

The fact that this match is a BO1 matchup is the only aspect that keeps this from being a no-brainer. While PSG.LGD has underperformed, in comparison to the lofty standards they set for themselves after the Epicenter XL Major win. They are still several tiers above IG.Vitality who barely managed to win a single series against Infamous. I predict an easy victory for PSG.LGD barring a miracle.

My Advice: 5 Shards on PSG.LGD


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