Chances of Winning a CS:GO Clutch Across Different Maps Calculated

Aditya Singh Rawat
22/Apr/2021 06:41 pm

Esports statistics and analytics website GGPredict has published a report on, 'What are the chances of winning a clutch in CS:GO across different maps'.
They reportedly analyzed over 200,000 rounds of professional CS:GO matches from over 2 years ago.
The report includes 1v2, 1v3, 1v4, and 1v5 clutch situations across Nuke, Inferno, Train, Dust 2, Mirage, Overpass, and Vertigo.

Clutch plays in CS:GO is what makes the game so exciting and fun to play. It brings out the best in a player and provides the entire community with loads of incredible and exhilarating gameplay clips, which are mostly used in various compilations. But what exactly is the probability of winning a clutch in CS:GO? The answer to this has now been calculated by ‘GGPredict’ which is an esports statistics and analytics website. They have reportedly analyzed over 200,000 rounds of professional CS:GO matches, that have taken place over the course of the last 2 years. 

Their findings have been explained below, bringing forth a lot of useful information which can help you make a better decision in different clutch situations and various CS:GO maps like Nuke, Inferno, Train, Dust 2, Mirage, Overpass, and Vertigo.

RELATED:  Custom Map Lets Users Replay CS:GO’s Most Popular Clutch Moments

Find out your chances of winning a clutch in CS:GO across different maps

GGPredict has done a fantastic job of educating the CS:GO community of how likely they are to succeed in different types of clutch situations across various maps. They got inspired to answer this query following Casper "cadiaN" Møller’s incredible clutch against Gambit Esports on Mirage, at the recently concluded grand finals of the ESL Pro League Season 13.

Here are a few interesting points based on the data collected by GGPredict showcased in the form of graphs in the post above,

  • On Nuke, there is an 8.78% more chance of winning a 1v2 clutch if you are playing T-sided. A similar trend is followed across both 1v3 and 1v4 clutch situations as well.

    This is quite an unusual metric because the CT-side is more favoured on Nuke. As per the HLTV data, out of the 8000+ games played on Nuke, CT-side has a 55.2% win rate. This further improves to 54.8% if we consider only online matches and 56.6% when only the LAN matches are considered.
  • Talking about Inferno, the T-sided advantage when it comes to winning a clutch is just ridiculous across all types of clutch scenarios. The biggest difference lies when trying to win a 1v2 clutch, where a T-sided player has an 18.6% more chance of winning the clutch than a CT player. The margin decreases across 1v3, 1v4, and 1v5, but T-sided players maintain an upper hand.

  • Even on Train the T-side has a clear advantage over CT. However, the win percentage chance in a 1v3 situation across all CS:GO maps is the highest for a CT-sided player if they are playing on Train. Also, it was surprising to see that the 1v5 clutch chance for a T-sided player on Train is literally 0, guess the sample size did not have any good endings for such a clutch scenario!
  • While Dust 2 did have an equal win chance for both T and CT players when in a 1v5 clutch situation. The T-sided had a clear upper hand in every other clutch scenario, with huge gaps between win percentages.

    Going by this metric and keeping in mind that Dust 2 is a T-sided map, the recent CT defence by against ENCE seems even more incredible. The way they came back from a ‘3-15’ deficit to win the map ‘19-17’ in overtime.

RELATED: Registers Biggest Comeback Ever on Dust 2 at ESL Pro League S13

  • When talking about Mirage, the T-side runs away with a huge 1v2 clutch situation win margin, leaving CT-side in the dust with a -10.33% tradeoff. This difference decreases by a huge margin across the other clutch scenario, finally equalising at the 1v5 situation with a 0.11% chance to win.
  • Overpass was by far the most equal map, in terms of the disparity in clutch win margins between the T and CT side. This can be attributed to the fact that Overpass is mostly a CT-sided map, so T players despite winning a lot of clutches are barely up by 4.03% when it comes to a 1v2 situation, 1.1% in a 1v3 situation, and 0.41% in a 1v4 scenario.

  • Vertigo because of being the least analyzed map among the group, had insufficient data to give a proper analysis on a 1v5 clutch situation. But apart from that, the distribution seemed fair, with not a lot of difference between the 2 sides.

RELATED:  [Watch] CadiaN Takes an Impossible 1v4 Clutch Against Gambit, CS:GO Responds

These are some key takeaways from the data gathered by GGPredict and can help the players figure out certain situations much better, helping them make better decisions, and knowing what to do when facing a clutch scenario across various maps.

Jakub "kuben" Gurczyński - MAD Lions CS:GO coach said the following,

“Winning a 1v2 clutch as T side on maps where the Sites (S) are far from each other gives us a chance to win a few precious seconds that the opponent needs to run towards the S on which we have just planted the bomb. Thanks to this, we can also effectively play 'by sound' and control the course of the 'post plant' situation after eliminating the first opponent.”


Aditya Singh Rawattwitter_link


Aditya Singh Rawat is the in-house CS:GO writer at AFK Gaming. While his understanding of the esports space is not restricted by geographical borders, his current focus lies in the Asian region. Understands and follows almost all major esport titles.