An indepth analysis of the Dota 2 Pro Circuit

Vignesh Raghuram

10th, Feb, 2018
One can argue that Valve’s decision to award the Top 8 teams of the 2017–2018 Pro Circuit Season with direct invites to TI8 has been the pivotal block upon which the entirety of the Dota 2 Pro Circuit (DPC) has been built.

While the decision to pump in $500,000 for Majors and $150,000 for Minors from Valve’s coffers certainly played a part, many agree that money isn’t the biggest lure towards these tournaments for these teams. It is all about the DPC points.

We are halfway through the DPC having gone through 47% (11/23) of the scheduled DPC events. But only 31.26%(5800/18550) has been distributed. Let's take a moment to look at the Points table and study it.

Presented below is a short analysis of the DPC points.
 

Minimum Mathematical amount of points needed to guarantee a TI8 invite

There are a finite number of points that can be given out, which means that as we run through the DPC tournaments, there will be a value that teams need to reach to secure that sweet TI8 invite. I’ve done some research and some mathematical calculations to figure out that value for each of the teams.
  

For the Methodology, CLICK HERE.
 
So 6088 is the magic number for the majority of these teams. They have to get to that number to mathematically guarantee qualification.

But that is a purely hypothetical number. Realistically, teams can qualify with as little as 2624 points (perhaps even lower). As things stand, only 3 teams (Team Secret, Team Liquid, and VP) are projected to surpass 6088 Points.

Data Analysts such as Elvan Aydemir from Team Secret confirms that “While the points mathematically required are ~6k, statistically speaking 4k points should be enough to qualify through DPC.”

This means that Team Secret, Team Liquid and, to some extent, Virtus Pro have almost guaranteed themselves a place in TI8 assuming the abscense of a complete collapse in form.
 

Regional Split-up of Points
 
Europe
 
Rank in DPC Team Current Points
     
1 Team Secret 4260
2 Team Liquid 3510
9 OG 630
16 Team Kinguin 90
     
  Total Points 8490
 
CIS
 
Rank in DPC Team Current Points
3 Virtus Pro 2700
5 Natus Vincere 1110
     
  Total Points 3810
 
China
 
Rank in DPC Team Current Points
4 Newbee 1725
8 Vici Gaming 810
10 LGD Gaming 472.5
13 LGD.Forever Young 200
17 VGJ. Thunder 45
     
  Total Points 3252.5
 
South East Asia
 
Rank in DPC Team Current Points
6 Mineski 900
11 Fnatic 390
12 TNC Pro Team 270
18 Echo International 30
     
  Total Points 1590
 
North America
 
Rank in DPC Team Current Points
7 Evil Geniuses 885
14 Complexity 135
15 Immortals 90
     
  Total Points 1110
 
South America
 
Rank in DPC Team Current Points
- - 0
     
  Total Points 0

Points to take away:
  • It is clear that South America is the weakest region in the Dota 2 Pro Circuit. While Europe is the strongest.
  • CIS is very top heavy with only two teams in the DPC table, with only two teams in it (albeit, both in the top 5)
  • China has the most number of teams in the DPC table, followed by SEA and Europe, further affirming that it remains as the most competitive region and has the most competitive qualifiers.


Overall, the introduction of the Dota 2 Pro Circuit system has allowed us to keep a gauge on how well each team/each region is performing and make mathematical assumptions on whether a team will make it to TI8 which is a welcome move.

The Dota 2 Pro Circuit will resume with the ESL One: Katowice 2018 schedule to kick off on 20th February. If Team Secret win the event, it will put them within touching distance of Mathematically securing qualification. Will they become the first team to do so? Or can the other teams play spoilsport? Let us know by commenting below or tweeting at us @afkgaming

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